Maranoa – Australia 2025

This seat is Australia’s most socially conservative seat as:
– Voted No in the SSM at 56% which is the highest in Queensland and any highly non-immigrant seat
– Safest LNP seat in the 2PP
– Highest No vote in Australia for the Voice Referendum at 85%

@ Marh, agree also It has had the strongest No vote at the 1999 Republic Referendum. Vote Compass has vote it repeatedly as the most right-wing seat.

The Minister of the Republic has been abolished in the latest reshuffle. It was probably a wise idea so the government focuses on bread and butter issues. I posted on the Maranoa thread as it had the highest no vote at the 1999 referendum and the voice.

@nimlan the republic idea is dead for at least another 15 years. albo wont try another referendum and i expect that given the liberals will be in power between 2028 and probaly mid-late 2030s we wont see any talk until at least 2037

Polling has shown most Australians support retaining the flag and the monarchy. It is probably the most foolish decision Labor could do to hold a vote on changing either one of this in the near future.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9727-australian-flag-favoured-for-retention-november-2024

The Republic Referendum suffered from the same problem the Voice did:
lack of a clear understanding of how the change would work in practice.
My opinion on both, most people would accept, after thinking about it for a while, that showing up in someone else’s country and saying
It’s our Country now
is wrong and ought to be made right.
The doubt is always whether the ALP can be trusted to make it right.

@Nimalan interesting poll but how do 56% of Labor voters want the flag to be changed if 61% of people in general don’t?

If Labor decides to hold another referendum then I guarantee they will lose the next federal election. They just had a failed referendum that wasn’t even close. The majority of moderates and conservatives alike voted No, while progressives and socialists mostly voted Yes. The majority of Coalition, One Nation and even Labor voters voted against it. It was mostly Labor, Greens and teal voters who voted Yes but again most voted No.

This isn’t anything to do with conservatism or wokeism or racism, it’s to do with the fact that well-off people in areas where virtually no Aboriginals live voted Yes and people who knew Aboriginal people and at least somewhat understood what was going on and what their issues were voted No. Hence why the most Indigenous seat (Lingiari) voted No and the least (Goldstein) voted Yes.

@ NP
I havnt done the maths to add it up myself. However, 56% of Labor voters is still not convincing as it means 44% of Labor voters are against it. Those 44% are more Labor Right voters while Greens and Labor left voters are Pro-Change. I am not a supporter of flag change or republic myself, i think it will be the Greens not Labor that is driving it. I dont think Labor will win a Teal held seat by abandoning the trade union movement to focus on Flags or the monarchy so it is not worthwhile for Labor

@Nether Portal:
I think “moderate” Liberals supported The Voice, guessng on the Seat by Seat figures, but the hidden story is that, at least in the Brisbane area, Labor left it to The Greens to hand out the HTVs at prepoll and on the day.
Greens also on the front foot pushing The Voice.
My opinion, they got sucked in by Labor, would’ve been better off adopting
an agnostic/wait and see attitude.

@Gympie while many of the richer small-l-liberal areas voted Yes, most moderate voters who lean conservative voted No. For example, the seats of Boothby and Sturt in Adelaide voted No. Boothby is small-l-liberal and was won by Labor in 2022 while Sturt was narrowly held by the Liberals, and due to Dutton being right-wing there is a chance Sturt could fall to Labor which would leave them without any seats in Adelaide.

@Gympie while many of the richer small-l-liberal areas voted Yes, most moderate voters who lean conservative voted No. For example, the seats of Boothby and Sturt in Adelaide voted No. Boothby is small-l-liberal and was won by Labor in 2022 while Sturt was narrowly held by the Liberals, and due to Dutton being right-wing there is a chance Sturt could fall to Labor which would leave them without any seats in Adelaide.

Also, it tended to be the new money areas that voted Yes (e.g Bondi). Old money areas like Vaucluse in Sydney, Toorak in Melbourne, Hendra in Brisbane, Dalkeith in Perth and Main Beach on the Gold Coast all voted No.

Toorak/Deepdene was certainly an eyeopener for me when I first saw it, but Hendra is where most of the racing stables were until a few years ago, on the wrong side of the tracks, it wouldn’t be in the top 50 old money suburbs in Brisbane.
Ascot and Hamilton Heights, absolutely, Hendra being conservative is a throwback to it’s horse racing battler history, in my opinion.
Here’s the booth breakdown in Brisbane electorate, without Ascot and Hamilton Yes woud’ve swept the booths:
https://results.aec.gov.au/29581/Website/ReferendumDivisionResults-29581-156.htm

There isn’t any significant movement to change to flag and no popular well-known alternatives to the current flag so this won’t be ever mentioned any time soon. NZ had a flag referendum in 2016 and voted to retain the current flag despite having a significant movement and well-known popular flag alternative.

@ Marh
There is some discussion on the Mackellar thread about who the Northern Beaches and the Sutherland Shire have diverged since the Republic referendum. I wondering if you had any thoughts on that that. Imagine if there was a flag vote the Shire and the Northern Beaches will have quite a different results.

My analaysis-https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/mackellar2022/comment-page-2#comment-824978

Over 200 pubs around the country will ban Australia Day. Warren Mundine has come out against it. This seat had the highest no for the Republic and the Voice and wlll be the Most Pro-Australia Day as well

@Nimalan pretty sure in all of the regional seats over 80% of people are pro-Australia Day including over 70% in Lingiari. In fact Cooper, Grayndler, Melbourne and Wills might be the only seats where most people are anti-Australia Day.

I’ll be checking the list of pubs to make sure I’m not going to any of them.

@ Nether Portal
i agree with you. I think it will be Melbourne, Wills that are most Anti-Australia Day electorates along with Cooper, Grayndler and Sydney. I think Canberra is a toss up. The inner north will be Anti Australia Day but the Belconnen parts are more middle Australia while the Inner South of Canberra is Tealish and Pro Australia Day. in Macnamara i think Caulfield will be Pro Australia Day as will Port Melbourne and the Parks to a lesser extent but St Kilda will be Anti Australia Day. In Griffith the area around West End will be anti- Australia Day but the rest of the electorate will be different. The list of pubs is available online. I dont understand why Corporations or local councils think they can decide what the National day should be. It is a decision for the nation as a whole.

@Nimalan I agree, I see it as just another woke publicity stunt.

To be fair I don’t think they’re “banning” Australia Day, but it’s the right of any business or corporation to choose which holidays they want to promote/celebrate and how they do it.

I don’t equate that to telling other people what to do. If a left-wing pub in one area decides not to celebrate or mention Australia Day, and another one around the corner decides to have a big Australia Day party, then people can decide which one they want to go to based on whether they want to celebrate or ignore the day themselves. I just see that as choice.

As an example, I wouldn’t expect Melbourne Kosher Butchers around the corner from my house to have Christmas decorations up in December, it’s their right to have Hannikuh candles instead.

I see it as the same thing.

@ Trent
The only point i would make is that Christianity is not the state religion of Australia and i dont expect Jewish businesses/schools to mark Christmas. I have many Jewish friends and i know that do they not personally celebrate Christmas and i never say Merry Christmas to them as it is pointless while i do wish them for Hannukah/Purim etc. However, i think that is different if Glen Eira Council decided not to put a Christmas Tree in their council offices or Westfield Bondi Junction did not have Christmas decorations i think it is weird. While my family celebrates Diwali instead of Christmas i accept my status as a minority and dont expect it to be a Public Holiday. I dont think Jewish businesses who have a Hannukah Menorah instead of a Christmas Tree are trying to start a conversation on which religious holiday should be marked by the nation.

@Trent @Nimalan some Jews do celebrate Christmas (a poll from the UK found that about 30% do I think) but it’s not a huge thing among them no. Christmas and Easter really are secular holidays these days though it’s just that religious people celebrate them religiously. I’m non-religious and I obviously Christmas and Easter for example as do most non-religious people.

Interestingly in India and Indonesia, Christmas is commonly celebrated as a secular holiday despite both of those countries not being Christian (India is mostly Hindu and Indonesia is mostly Muslim). Lebanon and Malaysia celebrate Christmas secularly too but the Christian population is bigger there (though there are also Indonesian and to a lesser extent Indian Christians).

The Japanese also have some interesting Christmas traditions, e.g they go on dates and eat KFC.

Private businesses have the right to not celebrate Australia Day, as do consumers to choose to attend or not to attend a business in response to their decision. This is how these issues should be resolved – through the free market and free speech – not through the arbitration of the state. Unless you believe it is legitimate for the government to arrest business owners for refusing to put up Christmas decorations, or for serving lunch during Ramadan, this is not a political issue.

At the end of the day, people are free to make their own choices, and that’s all there is to it. Trent and Nicholas have nailed it.

@ Nicholas
I was respectful to minorities in my post above. I am not suggesting police getting involved, i think it becomes a political issue when corporations try to use it push an agenda and a conversation, while we do have a free market, major companies like Woolworths have a lot of market power and if they dont sell merchanidise and Coles does not either then it becomes harder for those who do want to purchase Australia Day merchandise to get their hands on it.

I think when it comes to a well-established national public holiday we should accept that while people’s views might differ but the vast majority of people support and celebrate that holiday.

The Greens want to cancel Australia Day and probably Anzac Day too, so therefore saying you want to ban Australia Day is a very political statement. Everyone can have their opinions but I don’t support these things:

* Corporations and organisations making paid political ads or overt political statements or endorsements (Australia Day and anti-Israeli boycotts are part of this)
* Celebrities who are currently employed (e.g professional athletes and sportspeople or actors, personalities, singers and rappers who aren’t retired, etc) making paid political ads or overt political statements or endorsements as this alienates sections of their fanbase unless they are always openly political (Australian celebrities tend to stay away from talking about politics though except a few retired ones). However, after their career they are welcome to join politics and it’s great that some do join politics as people can relate more to them than businesspeople and union bosses who grew up with lots of money.
* Government bodies not celebrating or recognising a widely celebrated holiday (the government also wishes people a happy Chinese New Year and other ethnic holidays)

As for Ramadan, while Muslims do make up a big percentage of the population in specific areas and there are lots of Muslims in Australia, nationwide only 3.2% of people are Muslim (interestingly only 3.8% of the national population is Indigenous so there are nearly as many Muslims as Indigenous people). In the UK it’s a bit higher at 6.7% and in France it’s approximately 10%, both stats being significant especially for Western countries but still not enough to justify businesses not serving lunch during Ramadan.

@ Nether Portal
Got an update,
The company which i found out is foreign owned has back flipped and did not even take a full day after a backlash.
I say this as someone who supports closing the gap, which has bipartisan support and supports reviving Aboriginal languages and culture. Scomo once proposed a second public holiday to celebrate Aboriginal culture which i support.
I really wish Woolworths does something such as increasing the supply of fresh fruit and vegetables at affordable prices in indigenous communities to improve nutrition and find ways to include indigenous people in the supply chain. This can improve life expectancy etc
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-02/australian-venue-company-apologies-for-australia-day-controversy/104673138

I tend to think as Australia Day is a Sunday next year what has most likely happened is one or two of the pub managers decided to do something on the Sunday (night?), and one or two of the staff have complained to HR who then put a blanket ban on any extra events on Australia Day, which has morphed into a ‘ban on Australia Day’. Probably leaked by one of the managers for whom in this environment an extra weekend day makes or breaks the year.

@Nimalan I agree with you there, I think a separate public holiday would be good and Indigenous languages should be revived.

The major supermarkets still need to expand into Lingiari, however. Here is every major supermarket (not including the Liquorland in Alice Springs or the petrol stations owned by supermarkets) in Lingiari:

* Aldi: 0 (doesn’t exist in the NT)
* Coles: 1 (Alice Springs)
* IGA: 7 (Alice Springs (Eastside, Flynn Drive, Larapinta and Northside), Berry Springs, Tennant Creek and Yulara (Voyagers Resort; Yulara is a resort town near Uluru))
* Woolies: 3 (Alice Springs, Humpty Doo and Nhulunbuy)

In small rural towns and in remote areas people often shop at local markets or at IGA (which often has locally-supplied fruit and veggies) if there is no nearby supermarket, the fact that Katherine is the fourth-largest settlement in the Northern Territory after only Darwin, Palmerston and Alice Springs (all three of those are cities so Katherine is the largest place in the Territory considered to be a town) but doesn’t have a major supermarket is ridiculous (though it has a Coles Express and a EG Ampol which are petrol stations owned by Coles and Woolworths, respectively).

Interestingly there are only two IGAs in the seat of Solomon (one in Fannie Bay in Darwin and one in Zuccoli in Palmerston), so IGA is clearly trying to be the number one supermarket in Alice and potentially other remote areas knowing that other supermarkets aren’t as present south of Kakadu. Smart marketing move even if they make less money from it.

Private organisations and celebrities have the right to run political ads and make political statements, and there is nothing unethical in them doing so. If people disagree with them, consumers can boycott them, employees can resign, and other organisations can refuse to do business with them. Organisations and individuals can make decisions – including in relation to what causes they support – and bear the consequences. Indeed, some already have as has been highlighted in this conversation. That’s just the free market at work.

@Nicholas yeah but can you imagine if your favourite actor/athlete/singer/YouTuber/etc decided that he or she was gonna go and campaign for or endorse someone that wasn’t aligned with your views? What if they aligned with an extremist?

I think when it’s an association (like a political party, a sports club or a trade union) or a corporation does something against your views it’s easier to cope because obviously not everyone affiliated with that entity will support the position, but if it’s a person it makes it harder because you admired and trusted that person. Obviously people can have disagreements, that’s fine, but when it’s borderline polar opposite it’s hard (e.g a far-right and a far-left person would never get along).

@ NP
I will post the booths for you tomorrow, just a note for myself. I will do Kennedy next week
Maranoa includes
1. 100%% of Southern Downs
2. 100% of Warrego
3. 27% of Callide
4. 13% of Condamine
5. 30% of Gregory
6. 51% of Nanango

@Nimalan thanks. I think after Kennedy that’s all 30 done.

Yep Kennedy is the last one

Booths/Towns in Maranoa
1. Allora
2. Alpha
3. Amiens
4. Applethorpe
5. Augathella
6. Ballandean
7. Barcaldine
8. Bell
9. Blackall
10. Bollon
11. Brigalow
12. Broadwater Crossing
13. Cecil Plains
14. Charleville
15. Chinchilla
16. Clifton
17. Condamine
18. Coolabunia
19. Cooyar
20. Cunnamulla
21. Dalby booths (North, Central, South and West)
22. Dalveen
23. Dirranbandi
24. Dulacca
25. Eukey
26. Goomburra
27. Goondiwindi
28. Haden
29. Inglewood
30. Injune
31. Inverlaw
32. Jandowae

rest of the booths to follow in the afternoon. just got a few things this morning.

@Nimalan thanks, I will calculate this when the other booths are posted.

33. Kaimkillenbun
34. Killarney
35. Kingroy (Incluing east booth)
36. Kogan
37. Kumbia
38. Leyburn
39. Longreach
40. Macailister
41. Maidenwell
42. Maryvale
43. Massie
44. Meandarra
45. Miles
46. Millerman
47. Mitchell
48. Morven
49. Mugindi
50. Murrays Bridge
51. Nanango (inclu East booth)
52. Nobby
53. Perserverance
56. Pilton
57. Pratten
58. Quilpe

59. Roma & Roma South
60. St George
61. Stanthorpe
62. Stanthorpe West
63. Surat
64. Tanabinga
65. Talwood
66. Tambo
67. Tara.
68. Texas
69. Tharagomindah
70. The Summit
71. Wallangarra
72. Wallumbilla
73. Wandowan
74. Warwick (East, South, West and Central)
75. Winton
76. Wooroolin
77. Yangan
78. Yarraman
79. Yeralarbon

State level TPP (2024):

* LNP: 73.0%
* Labor: 27.0%

Labor did 0.9% worse on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022. The exact reason for this is unclear, but I think it may just be a general southern thing in Queensland since the LNP also overperformed on the Gold Coast, in Toowoomba, in the Scenic Rim and in the Somerset Region. While some of Maranoa is Central Queensland it includes a fair chunk of South East Queensland and stretches across the border of NSW and Queensland.

Interestingly Maranoa would be the coldest electorate in Queensland as it includes almost every town in Queensland that ever receives even a slight amount of snow (these are mountain towns like Stanthorpe, Applethorpe, Eukey, Texas, etc and occasionally Warwick). Yet it would also be one of Queensland’s hottest since it includes lots of desert towns (Birdsville, etc).